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Prediksi Ilmuwan Singapura: Corona di Indonesia Berakhir Mulai Juni .

Berita Viral dan TerUpdate


Prediksi Ilmuwan Singapura: Corona di Indonesia Berakhir Mulai Juni .

Prediksi Ilmuwan Singapura: Corona di Indonesia Berakhir Mulai Juni 

Prediksi Ilmuwan Singapura: Corona di Indonesia Berakhir Mulai Juni .


Para ilmuwan di Universitas Teknologi dan Desain Singapura (SUTD) memprediksi wabah COVID-19 di Indonesia bakal kelar bulan Juni nanti. Menurut mereka, saat ini Indonesia sudah memasuki masa puncak.

Prediksi ini dibuat oleh Laboratorium Inovasi Berbasis Data (DDI SUTD) dan ditampilkan di situsnya, bertajuk 'Kapankah COVID-19 Akan Berakhir?', diakses detikcom, Minggu (26/4/2020).

Mereka tak hanya membuat perkiraan untuk Indonesia. Ada 27 negara lain yang ikut diprediksi oleh akademisi dari SUTD ini.

Mereka membuat prediksi ini berdasarkan data yang terus diperbaharui, terakhir pada 26 April 2020. Metode yang digunakan adalah model SIR, atau susceptible (rentan), infected (tertular), recovered (sembuh), diterapkan untuk memperkirakan kurva siklus hidup pandemi virus Corona ini. Mereka menerapkan kode-kode dari Milan Batista, ilmuwan dari Universitas Ljubljana, Slovenia. Juga, mereka memanfaatkan data dari situs Our World in Data.

Namun demikian, Laboratorium Inovasi Berbasis Data SUTD ini memperingatkan bahwa penelitian yang mereka tampilkan di situs itu hanya bertujuan untuk pendidikan dan riset, serta bisa jadi memuat kesalahan (eror).

Berikut adalah hasil hitung-hitungan mereka mengenai berakhirnya virus Corona di Indonesia:


Tanggal titik balik dari puncak: 20 April 2020
Berakhir 97%: 7 Juni 2020
Berakhir 99%: 24 Juni 2020
Berakhir 100%: 7 September 2020

Setiap hari, data sebagai dasar perhitungan diperbaharui, sehingga hasilnya juga bisa berubah. Misalnya untuk Indonesia, data tanggal 25 April sedikit berbeda. Pada 25 April, tanggal wabah COVID-19 berakhir 97% ada pada 6 Juni 2020, sedangkan data tanggal 26 April tanggal berakhir 97% ada pada 7 Juni 2020.

"Dalam hal ini, tanggal akhir yang diperkirakan adalah waktu untuk mencapai 97% dari total kasus epidemi yang diharapkan," tulis DDI SUTD.

Pada kurva untuk Indonesia yang diperbaharui tanggal 25 April, terlihat kapan puncak Corona tercapai, yakni pada 19-20 April 2020.

Saat puncak itu, kasus baru positif COVID-19 di Indonesia diprediksi mencapai 350 kasus per hari. Namun kasus baru positif COVID-19 yang benar-benar terjadi di Indonesia diperkirakan lebih dari itu, yakni mencapai puncaknya hingga nyaris 450 kasus per hari. (
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