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IMF Telepon Jokowi, Ada Ancaman Krisis Ekonomi Global dan Kenaikan Utang

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IMF Telepon Jokowi, Ada Ancaman Krisis Ekonomi Global dan Kenaikan Utang

IMF Telepon Jokowi, Ada Ancaman Krisis Ekonomi Global dan Kenaikan Utang

IMF Telepon Jokowi, Ada Ancaman Krisis Ekonomi Global dan Kenaikan Utang
Presiden Joko Widodo kembali mengingatkan ancaman krisis ekonomi global yang melanda Indonesia dan negara-negara lain selama pandemi COVID-19 berlangsung.

Jokowi kemudian bercerita pernah berkomunikasi dengan Direktur Pelaksana International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva dan membahas krisis global akibat pandemi corona tersebut.

"1,5 bulan lalu saya telepon kepada IMF Ibu Kristalina Georgieva dan dia mengatakan bahwa betul-betul dunia global berada pada posisi krisis ekonomi yang tidak mudah, yang lebih berat daripada depresi berat 1930," kata Jokowi di Gedung Grahadi Surabaya, Jawa Timur, Kamis (25/6).

Jokowi kemudian menyoroti prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi sejumlah negara yang minus karena pandemi. Mulai dari Jepang, Inggris, hingga Jerman dan bahkan negara sekelas Amerika pun tak luput dari ancaman krisis ekonomi.

"Artinya apa? demand nanti akan terganggu. Demand, supply, produksi semuanya rusak dan terganggu. Ini lah yang juga harus kita ketahui bersama bahwa kita dalam proses mengendalikan COVID-19 urusan kesehatan tetapi kita juga memiliki masalah yang lain yaitu urusan ekonomi," lanjutnya.

Seberapa besar krisis ekonomi global yang akan terjadi? Berikut rangkuman proyeksi IMF mengenai krisis ekonomi global:
IMF Proyeksi Ekonomi Dunia Minus 4,9 Persen

IMF memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi global tahun ini akan mengalami kontraksi alias minus hingga 4,9 persen. Angka ini jauh lebih dalam dibandingkan proyeksi pada April lalu yang sebesar minus 1,9 persen.

Negara maju maupun berkembang juga diproyeksi mengalami pertumbuhan yang negatif. Perekonomian negara maju bahkan diperkirakan minus 8 persen dan negara berkembang minus 3 persen.
Direktur Pelaksana Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva. Foto: Nicholas Kamm / AFP

Perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) diperkirakan hingga minus 8 persen, Italia dan Spanyol diperkirakan masing-masing pertumbuhannya negatif hingga 12,8 persen. Jepang juga diperkirakan minus 5,8 persen dan Inggris minus 10,2 persen.

Untuk negara berkembang, hanya China yang perekonomiannya diperkirakan masih positif sebesar 1 persen di tahun ini. Meskipun ini jauh melambat dibandingkan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi China di 2019 yang mencapai 6,1 persen.

Sementara negara lainnya seperti India diperkirakan minus 4,5 persen. Untuk ASEAN-5, yang merupakan gabungan dari Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Thailand, dan Vietnam, diperkirakan juga minus hingga 2 persen.

Direktur Pelaksana IMF Kristalina Georgieva mengatakan, resesi global tersebut telah merugikan dunia hingga lebih dari USD 12 triliun selama 2020-2021. Adapun 10 persennya atau USD 1,2 triliun berasal dari Amerika Latin.

“Ini benar-benar krisis global, hampir 95 persen negara diproyeksikan menghadapi pertumbuhan pendapatan per kapita negatif pada 2020,” kata Georgieva dalam keterangannya, Kamis (25/6).

Pada saat yang sama, kebijakan moneter dan fiskal di seluruh negara dinilai semakin kuat dan efektif mencegah kerugian global dan angka pengangguran.
 

Kementerian Sosial salurkan bantuan sosial (bansos) untuk lanjut usia (lansia) terdampak pandemi corona di 5 provinsi. Foto: Kemensos

Secara global, kebijakan fiskal yang telah dikeluarkan saat ini mencapai USD 10,7 triliun dan kebijakan moneter mencapai lebih dari USD 6 triliun. “Respons yang tiada duanya terhadap krisis,” jelasnya.

IMF memproyeksikan pemulihan ekonomi mulai terlihat di 2021, dengan proyeksi pertumbuhan global kembali positif mencapai 5,4 persen. Begitu juga dengan negara maju yang diperkirakan tumbuh 4,8 persen dan negara berkembang tumbuh 5,9 persen.
IMF Ingatkan Utang Pemerintah Akan Terus Meningkat

Kepala Ekonom IMF, Gita Gopinath, mengatakan kerugian dunia akibat pandemi virus corona mencapai USD 12 triliun. Pemerintah juga perlu melakukan langkah-langkah untuk melindungi perekonomian, mulai dari pengeluaran tambahan hingga pinjaman.

Sebagai konsekuensinya, utang publik atau utang luar negeri akan terus meningkat. Bahkan rasio utang publik global diperkirakan mencapai 101 persen dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) di tahun ini.

"Krisis ini juga akan menghasilkan tantangan jangka menengah. Utang publik diproyeksikan tahun ini mencapai tingkat tertinggi yang pernah ada, bahkan melewati puncak Perang Dunia II, baik di negara maju maupun berkembang," kata Gopinath dalam keterangannya, Jumat (26/6).
 

Ilustrasi dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Foto: ANTARA FOTO/Aprillio Akbar

Menurut dia, kenaikan utang itu karena saat ini seluruh negara fokus untuk pencegahan dan pemulihan ekonomi akibat pandemi virus corona.

Gopinath menjelaskan, pemerintah perlu melakukan konsolidasi kebijakan fiskal dalam jangka menengah demi mengurangi belanja. Contohnya, memperluas basis pajak dan meminimalkan penghindaran pajak.

Di Indonesia, total Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) per April 2020 mencapai USD 400,19 miliar atau sekitar Rp 5.655,8 triliun (kurs Rp 14.133 per dolar AS). ULN tersebut tumbuh 2,9 persen dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu (year on year/yoy). Adapun rasio ULN tersebut mencapai 36,5 persen terhadap PDB.

Secara rinci, ULN publik (pemerintah dan bank sentral) sebesar USD 192,43 miliar, naik 1,4 persen (yoy). Adapun ULN pemerintah mencapai USD 189,71 miliar atau naik 1,6 persen (yoy), sedangkan ULN bank sentral hanya USD 2,72 miliar atau turun 10,23 persen (yoy).

Sementara ULN swasta, termasuk BUMN, mencapai USD 207,76 miliar. Angka ini meningkat 4,2 persen (yoy), namun melambat jika dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya yang tumbuh 4,7 persen (yoy). Artikel Asli
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