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BMKG: Potensi Gempa M 8,9 Disertai Tsunami 29 Meter di Jatim, Kecepatan Gelombang Datang 24 Menit

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BMKG: Potensi Gempa M 8,9 Disertai Tsunami 29 Meter di Jatim, Kecepatan Gelombang Datang 24 Menit

BMKG: Potensi Gempa M 8,9 Disertai Tsunami 29 Meter di Jatim, Kecepatan Gelombang Datang 24 Menit

 

BMKG: Potensi Gempa M 8,9 Disertai Tsunami 29 Meter di Jatim, Kecepatan Gelombang Datang 24 Menit

Info Sains Geografi gempa bumi disertai gelombang tsunami dikeluarkan Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika ( BMKG ).

BMKG melakukan pemodelan matematika untuk mengukur potensi gempa terkuat dan tinggi maksimum tsunami yang bisa menyapu Jawa Timur.

Data zona seismik gap hingga sejarah gempa Jawa Timur. Ilustrasi tsunami. Potensi tsunami terjadi di pesisir Sumenep. (Istimewa)

Berdasarkan pemodelan matematis, Jawa Timur berpotensi diguncang gempa hingga kekuatan magnitudo 8.9 dan tinggi maksimum tsunami mencapai 29 meter.

"Dari sejarah dan data-data yang terekam hingga saat ini,

akhirnya kami menyusun pemodelan secara matematis potensi tsunami di Jawa Timur," ungkap Dwikorita dalam Webinar bertajuk Kajian dan Mitigasi Gempabumi dan Tsunami di Jawa Timur, Jumat (28/5/2021).

"Hasil analisis kami untuk wilayah Jawa Timur,

potensi tsunami seluruh pesisir tinggi maksimum adalah 26-29 meter di Kabupaten Trenggalek.

Dan waktu tiba tercepat, datangnya tsunami paling cepat, 20-24 menit di Kabupaten Blitar," imbuh Dwikorita.

Zona seismik gap


Dari gambar peta distribusi gempa bumi yang dirasakan di wilayah Jawa Timur dan sekitarnya pada periode 2008-2020,

dari sekian ratus kejadian gempa sejak tahun 2008 hingga 2020 - ditandai dengan titik merah dan kuning -, tampak ada zona-zona yang "kosong" tidak ada kejadian gempa.

"Zona-zona yang kosong ini, merupakan zona seismik gap," kata Dwikorita.

Dia menjelaskan, zona seismik gap di daerah selatan Jawa Timur patut diwaspadai.

Sebab, zona ini seharusnya relatif aktif melakukan guncangan, tapi jarang terjadi.

"Karena zona itu belum melepaskan energi sebagai gempa, energi masih tersimpan di sana.

Artinya baru siap-siap akan melepaskan energi," jelas Dwikorita.

Nah, hal ini nantinya dapat memicu terjadinya gempa signifikan karena energi gempa cukup lama tersimpan dan terakumulasi dalam waktu cukup lama.

"Inilah yang kami jadikan skenario untuk memprediksi kemungkinan terjadinya tsunami,

berapa ketinggian gelombang, kapan waktu datangnya, dan jarak masuknya berapa," ungkap Dwikorita.

"Sehingga kami melakukan pemetaan bahaya tsunami juga," imbuh dia.

Sejarah gempa dan tsunami di Jawa Timur

Sejarah gempa merusak di Jawa Timur

Sejak 1836-1972, tercatat ada 9 gempa merusak di Jawa Timur dengan dampak guncangan mencapai skala intensitas VII MMI-IX MMI. Ilustrasi foto Tsunami dahsyat, gempa bumi di Jatim. Pemodelan dari BMKG. (Tribun Cirebon - Tribunnews.com)

Dalam skala intensitas VII MMI, semua orang merasakan gempa kuat dan keluar rumah.

Kerusakan ringan pada rumah-rumah dengan bangunan dan konstruksi yang baik.

Sedangkan pada bangunan yang konstruksinya kurang baik terjadi retak-retak bahkan hancur, cerobong asap pecah.

Getaran juga dirasakan oleh orang yang naik kendaraan.

Sementara pada skala intensitas VIII MMI, kerusakan ringan dialami oleh bangunan dengan konstruksi yang kuat.

Retak-retak pada bangunan dengan konstruksi kurang baik, dinding dapat lepas dari rangka rumah,

cerobong asap pabrik dan monumen-monumen roboh, air menjadi keruh.

Pada skala intensitas IX MMI, bangunan dengan konstruksi kuat rusak, rangka-rangka rumah menjadi tidak lurus, banyak retak.

Rumah tampak agak berpindah dari pondamennya. Pipa-pipa dalam rumah putus.

Berikut daftar sejarah gempa merusak di Jawa Timur:

Gempa Mojokerto, 22 Maret 1836.

Belum diketahui pasti magnitudo gempa ini, tapi dampak gempa dilaporkan mencapai skala intensitas VII-VIII MMI.

Gempa Madiun, 20 November 1862.

Dampak gempa ini dilaporkan mencapai skala intensitas VII MMI.

Gempa Wlingi, 15 Agustus 1896.

Dampak gempa dilaporkan mencapai skala intensitas VII MMI.

Guncangan dirasakan hingga daerah Brangah, Negororejo, Probolinggo

Gempa Tulungagung, 20 Agustus 1902. Dampak gempa dilaporkan mencapai skala intensitas VII MMI.

Gempa Pacitan, 27 September 1937. Kekuatan gempa M 7,2.

Getaran dirasakan dalam skala intensitas VII-IX MMI.

Setidaknya 2.200 rumah roboh dan banyak orang tewas.

Gempa Lamongan, 11 Agustus 1939. Dampak gempa dilaporkan mencapai skala intensitas VII MMI.

Gempa dirasakan hingga Rembang, Jawa Tengah.

Gempa Malang, 20 November 1958. Dampak gempa mencapai skala intensitas VII-VIII MMI.

Akibat gempa, banyak rumah rusak, beberapa lokasi tanah terbelah, dan 8 orang tewas.

Gempa Malang, 19 Februari 1967. Dampak gempa dilaporkan mencapai skala VII-IX MMI.

Kerusakan parah terjadi di daerah Dampit, sebanyak 1.539 rumah rusak, 14 orang tewas, dan 72 orang luka-luka.

Di Gondanglegi 9 orang tewas, 49 luka-luka, 119 rumah roboh, 402 rumah retak, 5 masjid rusak. Di Trenggalek, 33 rumah retak. Gempa ini dirasakan hingga Banyumas dan Cilacap.

Gempa Blitar-Trenggalek, 4 Oktober 1972. Guncangan kuat terjadi di Gandusari dan Trenggalek.

"Artinya kalau di masa lalu sudah pernah terjadi gempa kuat,

ini kemungkinan masih bisa terjadi di masa depan," kata Dwikorita mengingatkan.

"Ini yang harus dipersiapkan. Karena di Jawa Timur juga ada zona-zona
patahan aktif seperti patahan Kendeng,

Pasuruan, Probolinggo, di sekitar Rembang sampai Madura" imbuh dia.

Masyarakat dan pemerintah perlu mewaspadai daerah yang ada di zona patahan aktif.

Sejarah tsunami di Jawa Timur

Jawa Timur pernah disapu tsunami sebanyak 6 kali, sejak 1930 hingga 1994. Berikut datanya:

4 Januari 1840, gempa kuat dirasakan sampai Semarang diikuti gelombang pasang di Pacitan

7 Februari 1843, gempa di selatan Pulau Madura memicu tsunami.

20 Oktober 1859, terjadi gempa kuat disertai tsunami, gelombang tiba saat kapal Ottolina bersiap untuk melepas jangkar. 11 dari 13 awak kapal selamat

11 September 1921, Parangtritis di wilayah pantai Selatan Yogyakarta mengalami tsunami kecil.

19 Juli 1930, tsunami di Besuki, Jawa Timur sekitar pukul 2.00 WIB.

2 Juni 1994, Pancer adalah desa yang mengalami dampak terburuk dari tsunami.

Dari 3.081 jumlah penduduk, 121 orang tewas dan 27 luka-luka. Di antara 996 rumah, 704 rumah runtuh diterjang tsunami.

BMKG memiliki data lengkap potensi tsunami di seluruh pantai kabupaten Jawa Timur.

Sebagai contoh, potensi tsunami di Pacitan tinggi maksimum dapat mencapai 25-28 meter dan waktu tercepat datangnya tsunami 26-29 menit.

Dwikorita berharap, hasil analisis BMKG tersebut dapat dijadikan acuan bagi pemerintah daerah

untuk melakukan upaya pencegahan dan mitigasi selanjutnya.

(Kompas.com)

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